NL WEST PREVIEW

5—SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS: The Giants are praying for the biggest case of addition by subtraction in the history of sports. The Barry Bonds era is over, leading to spring training full of happy faces and positive attitudes. There’s no longer a division in the locker room, but at the same time there’s no longer a consistent source of home runs.

Last season’s returning home run leader is Bengie Molina (19 HR). After failing to land a premium power bat in free agency, they settled on centerfielder Aaron Rowand, coming off the best season of his career (.309, 27 HR, 89 RBI). Rowand is the extreme opposite of Bonds when it comes to attitude, he also won’t strike fear into the heart of an opposing pitcher. Other than 1B Dan Ortmeier, the rest of the lineup is the oldest in the league as it features Dave Roberts, Randy Winn, Ray Durham, Omar Vizquel and Rich Aurilia. Expect the Giants to make a strong push for White Sox 3B Joe Crede before the season begins.

The Giants will play a load of close games because their rotation is strong. Only problem is that every team in the division boasts a strong rotation. Barry Zito (11-13, 4.53) had his second straight disappointing season and needs to be the Cy Young candidate many expected if the Giants hope to still be playing meaningful games in June. Matt Cain (7-16, 3.65) suffered more tough losses than anyone in baseball—a trend that should continue with their current offense. Tim Lincecum showed flashes of brilliance, and could be a future ace if he isn’t dealt for a bat. Meanwhile, Noah Lowry has arm problems that will sideline him for at least the first month of the season. The bullpen is young, but relatively irrelevant as there won’t be many leads to protect.


4—SAN DIEGO PADRES: One can only scratch their head when trying to figure out the offensive philosophy of the franchise. After realizing power hitters couldn’t put up good numbers in spacious PETCO Park, the goal was to bring in speed and gap hitters. However, the lineup seriously lacks speed.

They acquired Jim Edmonds from the Cardinals, but Edmonds (.252) won’t hit the gaps because he doesn’t hit much of anything these days. Brian Giles will hit the gaps, but should no longer be counted on to hit .300. 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff had an atrocious start to his rookie season but opened eyes with a .317 average after the All-Star break. He’ll need to carry that over if the Padres hope to play more than 162 games. Adrian Gonzalez had a down year and still hit 30 HR’s and drove in 100 runs. However, his average dipped 22 points (.304 in 2006 to .282 in ’07) and that needs to get back up.

Jake Peavy (19-6, 2.54, 240 K’s) should have won the NL Cy Young in 2007. If Chris Young can put together a full season of dominance, they might be the best 1-2 punch in the league. However, his numbers fell off the table in the second half. After going 8-3 with a 2.00 ERA, he only managed a 1-5 mark with a 4.80 ERA in an injury-riddled second half. After the top two, the rest of the rotation is full of question marks. Greg Maddux will be 42 on April 14 and is simply a .500 pitcher at this point. Randy Wolf and Mark Prior have spent more time in the doctor’s office throughout their career than on the mound. If the Padres get even three wins from Prior, it would be shocking. Trevor Hoffman is the best closer ever—unless it’s a big game.


3—COLORADO ROCKIES: There is a distinct difference between being “very good” and being “very hot.” During their remarkable run to the World Series last season, the Rockies made many forget that they weren’t that good for much of the year. They simply got real hot at the best possible time. In 2008, they’re going to have to be good right out of the gate to win the NL’s best division.

The lineup remains the best in the division led by the player that should have been NL MVP in ’07—Matt Holliday (.340—36—137). Brad Hawpe, Todd Helton and Garrett Atkins provide pop throughout the rest of the lineup. The Rockies can’t afford for shortstop Troy Tulowitzki to encounter a sophomore slump. He’ll need to come close to his numbers from last season when he hit .291 with 24 HR’s and 99 RBI. The departure of 2B Kaz Matsui didn’t gain much attention, but it could have a negative impact. He was brilliant last season in the all-important No. 2 spot in the lineup. He hit for power when called upon and also got on base, stole bases and set the table for the pop in the middle.

It’s very disappointing that management didn’t do more to strengthen the starting rotation after seeing the effect that pitching deep into October had on prior World Series teams such as the 2005 White Sox, and 2006 Cardinals and Tigers. Jeff Francis and Aaron Cook are solid, but not spectacular at the front of the rotation. Flamethrower Ubaldo Jimenez may be the key to the success of the 2008 Rockies. Former closer Brian Fuentes took his demotion well and became a terrific setup man to Manny Corpas. The addition of workhorse Luis Vizcaino makes the bullpen one of the best in the league.


2—LOS ANGELES DODGERS: Ever since Tommy Lasorda left the dugout, a winning attitude has been missing in L.A. While managers are only as good as their players, the hiring of Joe Torre was pure genius. He’ll bring that championship attitude back and guide the Dodgers to the postseason.

The Dodgers finally got the big bat they’d been lacking with the signing of Andruw Jones. While his average may hover around .250, 30-40 home runs will help offset that. Juan Pierre (196 hits, 64 stolen bases) and Rafael Furcal (25 stolen bases in an injury riddled 2007) form an elite pair of table setters at the top of the lineup. Russell Martin (.293—19--87) is the best hitting catcher in the league. The continued development of terrific young talents such as Matt Kemp and James Loney could make the lineup a pain for opposing pitchers, especially if veterans Jeff Kent and Nomar Garciaparra can provide anything substantial.

Brad Penny has developed into a legitimate ace, but it will be impending free agent Derek Lowe (12-14, 3.88) that will have the big season. Nothing pushes a guy to perform at an outstanding level more than a big payday around the corner. Chad Billingsley (12-5, 3.31) provides depth to the rotation. Closer Takashi Saito (39 saves, 1.40 ERA) has made people forget about Eric Gagne real fast. If teams don’t have a lead on the Dodgers by the 6th inning, forget about it. Jonathan Broxton, Scott Proctor, Joe Beimel and a healthy Yhency Brazoban will slam the door shut until Saito enters.


1—ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS: The D’Backs had an uncanny way of just finding ways to win games in 2007—and they did so down the stretch without All-Star 2B Orlando Hudson. A healthy Hudson and the continued development of their young stars make them the favorite to win the “Wild, Wild West.”

Arizona will count on centerfielder Chris Young to provide most of their pop. His 32 home runs during his rookie campaign were nice, but he needs to raise his .237 average and cut down on the 141 strikeouts from a year ago. A full season for phenom Justin Upton and 3B Mark Reynolds should help along with a healthy Chad Tracy. Don’t expect Eric Byrnes to come close to the all-around numbers (.286—21—83 with 50 stolen bases) he posted last season.

The offense just needs to be consistent—not outstanding—because the pitching staff is the best in the league from top to bottom. Reigning Cy Young Brandon Webb (18-10, 3.01) will be challenged for the award by key offseason acquisition Dan Haren (15-9, 3.07). Doug Davis (13-12) and Micah Owings will eat innings in the back of the rotation and give the team a chance to win most games they start. Of course, how can you forget about Randy Johnson? If he can provide anything, the rotation could have five pitchers reach double-digit wins. After trading closer Jose Valverde for setup man Chad Qualls, Brandon Lyon gets first crack in the closer role. He lacks dominant stuff, so expect Tony Pena to take over sometime around the All-Star break if not earlier.