2008 NL CENTRAL PREVIEW

6—PITTSBURGH PIRATES: In a normal division, they’re still a long way from competing; in the NL Central they aren’t too far off. That is, as long as they don’t trade outfielders Jason Bay and Xavier Nady for nothing. Combined with Adam LaRoche and Freddy Sanchez, who recently signed a long-term deal, the lineup is the best its been since the days of Bobby Bonilla and pre-steroid Barry Bonds.

Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell head a young rotation—besides Matt Morris, though he’ll eat innings-- that might surprise people. If Zach Duke ever lives up to the promise following his brief 2005 stint (8-2, 1.81), the Pirates might at least make life miserable for one of the division’s front-runners. However, beyond lefty specialist Damaso Marte, the bullpen is atrocious and will squander most leads.


5—CINCINNATI REDS: Second baseman Brandon Phillips finally lived up to the hype when he dubbed himself “The Franchise” as a star prospect in the Cleveland Indians organization. In 2007, he hit .288 with 30 HR’s, 32 stolen bases and 94 RBI. In a lineup that still includes future Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr., and Adam Dunn, runs shouldn’t be a problem.

While Aaron Harang (16-6, 3.73) is the best pitcher in the NL nobody cares about, the rest of the staff contains pitchers no one should care about. Bronson Arroyo backed up consecutive 14-win seasons with a 9-15 campaign in 2007 and needs to improve for the Reds to have a chance. Prized prospect Homer Bailey will finally get a chance to prove his worth. After years of closer by (bad) committee, the Reds finally stabilized the position by breaking the bank for Francisco Cordero, coming off a 44-save season with the Milwaukee Brewers.


4—ST. LOUIS CARDINALS: Albert Pujols and Troy Glaus will hit 40-50 home runs, but that’s where the production stops. Left fielder Chris Duncan hit 21 home runs last season, but essentially gives all his run production right back by being the worst defensive outfielder in the league. It’s worth the price of admission just to watch this guy attempt to take a normal route on a fly ball. The question then becomes, are opposing pitchers supposed to worry about a lineup that includes Skip Schumaker, Yadier Molina, Cesar Izturis and Adam Kennedy?

When fans are ready to riot over the failure to re-sign the 7-17 Kip Wells, pitching is a problem. Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper went a combined 26-24 last season and head the rotation. They are followed by Joel Piniero (7-5, 4.33), Matt Clement—who missed all of 2007 and Anthony Reyes. Reyes should improve on his 2-14 record, however.

If Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder can return to their winning ways whenever they attempt a comeback, the season could be far better than it seems right now. Otherwise, fans at Busch Stadium are going to be reaching into their wallets to purchase all-to-many $12 Budweiser’s.


3—HOUSTON ASTROS: The Astros will be the measuring stick in terms of just how bad the NL Central truly is in 2008. They quietly have put together one of the best lineups in the NL—especially when taking into account the short porch in left field. While manager Cecil Cooper has stated that he won’t set a lineup until just before the start of the season, take a look at one possibility:
1- Michael Bourn (CF) posted a .348 OBP in 119 at bats while stealing 18 of 19 bases for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2007.
2- Kaz Matsui (2B) thrived in the 2-hole for the Colorado Rockies in 2007, batting .288 with 32 stolen bases.
3- Lance Berkman (1B) is a .300 career hitter. While the average dipped to .278 last season, he still belted 34 homers and had 102 RBI.
4- Carlos Lee (LF) continues to improve and should post MVP-caliber numbers. Taking advantage of the short porch in Houston as well as playing roughly 30 additional games in hitter-friendly parks such as Wrigley Field, Miller Park and Great American Ball Park should lead to better numbers than the .303 average, 32 HR’s and 119 RBI he posted in 2007.
5- Hunter Pence (RF) was hitting .342 until a wrist injury in July sidelined him for a month—a perfect guy to restart the offense after Berkman and Lee clear the bases.
6- Miguel Tejada (SS) is an unbelievable upgrade over Adam Everett. Sure, he’s no longer on the juice, but he’ll still hit around .300, with 20 or more homers and around 100 RBI.
7- Ty Wigginton (3B) hit 22 home runs and drove in 67 last season. Not too shabby for a guy in the lower third of the order.
8- J.R. Towles (C) hit a robust .375 after a September call-up, albeit in 40 at bats. No, he’s not that good a hitter. But, he is going to post a far better average than the .235 by Brad Ausmus.

So, what’s the problem? General Manager Ed Wade forgot to address his pitching staff after perennial Cy Young contender Roy Oswalt. Wandy Rodriguez (9-13) is slated as the No. 2. A bounce back season from Brandon Backe would greatly help, especially with 41-year-old Woody Williams (8-15) behind him. Trading for closer Jose Valverde was a nice move, but how many high-scoring affairs will he really have a chance to save?


2—MILWAUKEE BREWERS: The Brewers appear set for a run of good baseball and should only improve in 2008, but will it be enough to make the playoffs? Probably not. The only significant addition to the lineup came in the form of CF Mike Cameron, and whatever he brings to the plate is a bonus. His gold glove-caliber defense allows Bill Hall to move to third base and Ryan Braun to move to left field. Prince Fielder is a legitimate MVP candidate and should easily belt 50 homers again. While Braun may not go .324—34—97 over a full season, 2B Rickie Weeks probably won’t hit .235 again, either.

Milwaukee is overflowing with pitchers, with eight guys that can make the rotation. Ben Sheets’ health is always an issue, but unlike previous years, the Brewers shouldn’t collapse if he spends a significant amount of time on the DL. Youngsters Yovany Gallardo, Carlos Villanueva and Manny Parra showed flashes of brilliance in 2007. Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush and Claudio Vargas are solid innings eaters. The wild card is Chris Capuano (5-12), who failed to win a game after the All-Star break after being regarded as the No. 2 in the rotation. A return to 2005 form, where he went 18-12 could push the Brewers into the postseason. If Eric Gagne reverts back to the way he pitched with the Texas Rangers, he’ll help offset the departure of Francisco Cordero. However, if he resembles the pitcher with the Boston Red Sox after being traded, there could be issues.


1—CHICAGO CUBS: 100 years of losing come to an end in 2008. No, the Cubs aren’t going to win the World Series. But, they will make the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time in a century.

The lineup will please the “bleacher bums” at Wrigley by sending plenty of balls into the seats. With Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez in the middle of the order there should be no issue scoring runs. With that being said, there are questions at other spots. Is uber-prospect Felix Pie finally ready to hold down the leadoff spot in the order? If he can’t improve on the .271 OBP he posted in 177 at bats in 2007, the Cubs will be seriously void of speed in their lineup. Kosuke Fukudome appears to be legit and could make a seamless transition like Hideki Matsui, but what if his first few seasons go the way of Kaz? Finally, Geovany Soto showed a good bat at the end of ‘07, but can he do it over a full season?

Behind Carlos Zambrano, the Cubs rotation still isn’t intimidating on paper and really doesn’t match up well with the Brewers’ rotation. Ted Lilly had far and away his best season in 2007 (15-8, 3.83), but while it could signal that he has turned the corner it could also be an aberration. Even if it’s the latter, the NL is just so weak; it should be hard for Lilly’s numbers to decrease significantly. Rich Hill and Sean Marshall need to hold down the back of the rotation, because if any combination of Ryan Dempster, Jon Lieber and Jason Marquis are pitching back-to-back there could be unforeseen issues. Carlos Marmol (1.43, 96 K’s in 69.1 innings) is going to be an electrifying closer. Bob Howry and a healthy Kerry Wood could make the bullpen one of the best in the league.