NL EAST PREVIEW

5—WASHINGTON NATIONALS: General manager Jim Bowden has brought a host of former Reds along with the team to their new digs of National Park. On paper, Bowden has put together a formidable lineup led by former Reds players Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena and Felipe Lopez. Another ex-Red, Aaron Boone, was brought in during the offseason with the hope that he can provide a boost. Another ex-Red, Dmitri Young, hopes to improve on the career-best .320 average he posted in 2007. Along with Young, 3B Ryan Zimmerman (.266, 24 home runs, 91 RBI) is the only consistent offensive force.

Lastings Milledge was an intriguing pick-up and has star potential. Bowden hopes a change of scenery will benefit him. The rest of the lineup is composed of veterans with inconsistent histories such as Nick Johnson, Paul Lo Duca, Cristian Guzman and Ronnie Belliard. If they can catch lightning in a bottle, the offense could be allright.

However, the starting rotation is composed of average pitchers—at best. That explains why Tim Redding has a shot at making the rotation when the Nationals break camp. Ace Shawn Hill posted a nice 3.42 ERA in an injury-shortened season; with only 25 games started in his career he is too inexperienced to lead a rotation.


4—FLORIDA MARLINS: Rebuilding mode is back in full force in south Florida after the team traded away Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis—the last remaining pieces from the 2003 World Series team.

The supremely talented Hanley Ramirez ushers in the new era, and he might just be the most talented player in baseball. Don’t believe me? Last season, Ramirez hit .332 with 29 HR’s, 81 RBI, 51 stolen bases, 48 doubles and six triples. At age 24, Ramirez finished just one homer and two doubles away from joining an elite club of players to hit at least 30 HR’s, swipe 50 bags and hit 50 doubles in the same season. How elite? He would be the founding member.

Up-and-coming players such as Josh Willingham, Dan Uggla, Mike Jacobs and Jeremy Hermida provide plenty of hope as their numbers improved from their rookie season. 20-year-old Cameron Maybin, the prized return from the Cabrera-Willis trade is considered a 5-tool player and could really shorten the transition years.

Scott Olsen (10-15, 5.81 ERA) has the stuff of an ace, but must show improved attitude to fulfill his maximum potential. Sergio Mitre also showed promising signs, posting a 2.85 ERA before the All-Star break. However, as he greatly surpassed his career-high innings pitched mark, his ERA jumped to 7.27 in the second half. Better conditioning and arm strength are a necessity. Another catch in the Cabrera-Willis deal, 6-foot-6-inch lefty Andrew Miller, has the potential to be the ace for years to come. Closer Kevin Gregg and relievers Justin Miller, Matt Lindstrom, Taylor Tankersley, Renyel Pinto and Lee Gardner each posted ERAs in the 3’s or lower.


3—ATLANTA BRAVES: A few weeks ago, Chipper Jones said he found it amusing that nobody was even giving them a shot to win the division. He has a good point. But, in order to do that, Jones, who turns 36 on April 24, will need to continue to approach 30 HR’s and 100 RBI. SS Yunel Escobar is very talented and will provide a great boost over a full season to a lineup that already includes Brian McCann and LF Matt Diaz (.338). Trade deadline 2007 acquisition Mark Teixeira has the ability to be a game-changer at the plate while Jeff Francoeur needs to keep improving on the .293 and 105 RBI he had in ’07.

John Smoltz (14-8, 3.11) and Tim Hudson (16-10, 3.33) are as good as it gets at the front of a rotation. While Tom Glavine’s homecoming is a feel-good story, it remains to be seen how much he’ll have left after turning 42 on May 25th. If he struggles, Chuck James, Mike Hampton or Jair Jurrjens needs to step up big time. The bullpen could be a huge problem as new closer Rafael Soriano only has 13 career saves.


2—PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES: Finally, the Phillies lived up to there potential and made the postseason in 2007. Or did they? An 89-73 record isn’t exactly earth shattering, and it took a collapse of epic proportions by the New York Mets just to reach the playoffs.

The lineup is anchored by reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins and MVP candidate Ryan Howard—the youngest player ever to reach 100 home runs. But, is the rest of the lineup all that good? LF Pat Burrell needs to find consistency with his swing. A drastic slump ala the .215 average and 11 homers he posted before the All-Star break in 2007 could spell disaster. Meanwhile, losing the attitude and consistent bat of Aaron Rowand could have a negative impact similar to what the Chicago White Sox experienced in 2006. Shane Victorino can help offset that if he continues to improve, but don’t expect much from 33-year-old Geoff Jenkins. New 3B Pedro Feliz should see a spike in power in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

Cole Hamels (15-5, 3.39) gets some help at the top of the rotation as Brett Myers rejoins the rotation. But, the key will be the progress of 2nd year starter Kyle Kendrick. Kendrick shocked many by going 10-4 with a 3.87 ERA after being called up mid-season. Jamie Moyer and Adam Eaton can’t be counted on to provide much at the back end. Terrible luck already struck the bullpen when newly acquired closer Brad Lidge caught his spike in the mound on his first pitch of spring training and required surgery on his right knee. Assuming he returns healthy, the bullpen is strong with Tom Gordon and Ryan Madson in the setup role.


1—NEW YORK METS: It was their division to lose in ’07—and they did just that. Well, it’s theirs to lose again in 2008, only this time they will provide Shea Stadium with a happy ending in its final season.

Any lineup with three legitimate MVP candidates in David Wright (.325—30—107 and 34 stolen bases for good measure), Jose Reyes (78 stolen bases) and Carlos Beltran (33 HR’s, 112 RBI and 24 stolen bases) must be considered a divisional favorite. If Carlos Delgado can rebound from the worst season of his career (he still hit 24 HR’s), this lineup is downright scary.

Omar Minaya made the best move of the offseason by acquiring Johan Santana. The Mets had a glaring weakness in their rotation and he addressed it in the best possible way, by landing the best pitcher in the game. Shifting to a league with weaker lineups and getting to face pitchers instead of designated hitters should be a huge boost. Don’t be surprised if Santana wins 25-30 games and strikes out over 300 hitters. John Maine (15-10, 3.91), Oliver Perez (15-10, 3.56) and Orlando Hernandez (9-5, 3.92) all slide down into more natural places in the rotation. But, the real beneficiary and the piece that can turn the Mets from good to great is Pedro Martinez. If he is healthy, he and Santana could be as dominant as Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling with the Diamondbacks circa 2001. A healthy Duaner Sanchez—who missed all of 2007—will go a long way towards turning the Achilles heel of last year’s squad into a positive piece this season.