2008 NL CENTRAL PREVIEW

6—PITTSBURGH PIRATES: In a normal division, they’re still a long way from competing; in the NL Central they aren’t too far off. That is, as long as they don’t trade outfielders Jason Bay and Xavier Nady for nothing. Combined with Adam LaRoche and Freddy Sanchez, who recently signed a long-term deal, the lineup is the best its been since the days of Bobby Bonilla and pre-steroid Barry Bonds.

Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell head a young rotation—besides Matt Morris, though he’ll eat innings-- that might surprise people. If Zach Duke ever lives up to the promise following his brief 2005 stint (8-2, 1.81), the Pirates might at least make life miserable for one of the division’s front-runners. However, beyond lefty specialist Damaso Marte, the bullpen is atrocious and will squander most leads.


5—CINCINNATI REDS: Second baseman Brandon Phillips finally lived up to the hype when he dubbed himself “The Franchise” as a star prospect in the Cleveland Indians organization. In 2007, he hit .288 with 30 HR’s, 32 stolen bases and 94 RBI. In a lineup that still includes future Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr., and Adam Dunn, runs shouldn’t be a problem.

While Aaron Harang (16-6, 3.73) is the best pitcher in the NL nobody cares about, the rest of the staff contains pitchers no one should care about. Bronson Arroyo backed up consecutive 14-win seasons with a 9-15 campaign in 2007 and needs to improve for the Reds to have a chance. Prized prospect Homer Bailey will finally get a chance to prove his worth. After years of closer by (bad) committee, the Reds finally stabilized the position by breaking the bank for Francisco Cordero, coming off a 44-save season with the Milwaukee Brewers.


4—ST. LOUIS CARDINALS: Albert Pujols and Troy Glaus will hit 40-50 home runs, but that’s where the production stops. Left fielder Chris Duncan hit 21 home runs last season, but essentially gives all his run production right back by being the worst defensive outfielder in the league. It’s worth the price of admission just to watch this guy attempt to take a normal route on a fly ball. The question then becomes, are opposing pitchers supposed to worry about a lineup that includes Skip Schumaker, Yadier Molina, Cesar Izturis and Adam Kennedy?

When fans are ready to riot over the failure to re-sign the 7-17 Kip Wells, pitching is a problem. Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper went a combined 26-24 last season and head the rotation. They are followed by Joel Piniero (7-5, 4.33), Matt Clement—who missed all of 2007 and Anthony Reyes. Reyes should improve on his 2-14 record, however.

If Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder can return to their winning ways whenever they attempt a comeback, the season could be far better than it seems right now. Otherwise, fans at Busch Stadium are going to be reaching into their wallets to purchase all-to-many $12 Budweiser’s.


3—HOUSTON ASTROS: The Astros will be the measuring stick in terms of just how bad the NL Central truly is in 2008. They quietly have put together one of the best lineups in the NL—especially when taking into account the short porch in left field. While manager Cecil Cooper has stated that he won’t set a lineup until just before the start of the season, take a look at one possibility:
1- Michael Bourn (CF) posted a .348 OBP in 119 at bats while stealing 18 of 19 bases for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2007.
2- Kaz Matsui (2B) thrived in the 2-hole for the Colorado Rockies in 2007, batting .288 with 32 stolen bases.
3- Lance Berkman (1B) is a .300 career hitter. While the average dipped to .278 last season, he still belted 34 homers and had 102 RBI.
4- Carlos Lee (LF) continues to improve and should post MVP-caliber numbers. Taking advantage of the short porch in Houston as well as playing roughly 30 additional games in hitter-friendly parks such as Wrigley Field, Miller Park and Great American Ball Park should lead to better numbers than the .303 average, 32 HR’s and 119 RBI he posted in 2007.
5- Hunter Pence (RF) was hitting .342 until a wrist injury in July sidelined him for a month—a perfect guy to restart the offense after Berkman and Lee clear the bases.
6- Miguel Tejada (SS) is an unbelievable upgrade over Adam Everett. Sure, he’s no longer on the juice, but he’ll still hit around .300, with 20 or more homers and around 100 RBI.
7- Ty Wigginton (3B) hit 22 home runs and drove in 67 last season. Not too shabby for a guy in the lower third of the order.
8- J.R. Towles (C) hit a robust .375 after a September call-up, albeit in 40 at bats. No, he’s not that good a hitter. But, he is going to post a far better average than the .235 by Brad Ausmus.

So, what’s the problem? General Manager Ed Wade forgot to address his pitching staff after perennial Cy Young contender Roy Oswalt. Wandy Rodriguez (9-13) is slated as the No. 2. A bounce back season from Brandon Backe would greatly help, especially with 41-year-old Woody Williams (8-15) behind him. Trading for closer Jose Valverde was a nice move, but how many high-scoring affairs will he really have a chance to save?


2—MILWAUKEE BREWERS: The Brewers appear set for a run of good baseball and should only improve in 2008, but will it be enough to make the playoffs? Probably not. The only significant addition to the lineup came in the form of CF Mike Cameron, and whatever he brings to the plate is a bonus. His gold glove-caliber defense allows Bill Hall to move to third base and Ryan Braun to move to left field. Prince Fielder is a legitimate MVP candidate and should easily belt 50 homers again. While Braun may not go .324—34—97 over a full season, 2B Rickie Weeks probably won’t hit .235 again, either.

Milwaukee is overflowing with pitchers, with eight guys that can make the rotation. Ben Sheets’ health is always an issue, but unlike previous years, the Brewers shouldn’t collapse if he spends a significant amount of time on the DL. Youngsters Yovany Gallardo, Carlos Villanueva and Manny Parra showed flashes of brilliance in 2007. Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush and Claudio Vargas are solid innings eaters. The wild card is Chris Capuano (5-12), who failed to win a game after the All-Star break after being regarded as the No. 2 in the rotation. A return to 2005 form, where he went 18-12 could push the Brewers into the postseason. If Eric Gagne reverts back to the way he pitched with the Texas Rangers, he’ll help offset the departure of Francisco Cordero. However, if he resembles the pitcher with the Boston Red Sox after being traded, there could be issues.


1—CHICAGO CUBS: 100 years of losing come to an end in 2008. No, the Cubs aren’t going to win the World Series. But, they will make the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time in a century.

The lineup will please the “bleacher bums” at Wrigley by sending plenty of balls into the seats. With Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez in the middle of the order there should be no issue scoring runs. With that being said, there are questions at other spots. Is uber-prospect Felix Pie finally ready to hold down the leadoff spot in the order? If he can’t improve on the .271 OBP he posted in 177 at bats in 2007, the Cubs will be seriously void of speed in their lineup. Kosuke Fukudome appears to be legit and could make a seamless transition like Hideki Matsui, but what if his first few seasons go the way of Kaz? Finally, Geovany Soto showed a good bat at the end of ‘07, but can he do it over a full season?

Behind Carlos Zambrano, the Cubs rotation still isn’t intimidating on paper and really doesn’t match up well with the Brewers’ rotation. Ted Lilly had far and away his best season in 2007 (15-8, 3.83), but while it could signal that he has turned the corner it could also be an aberration. Even if it’s the latter, the NL is just so weak; it should be hard for Lilly’s numbers to decrease significantly. Rich Hill and Sean Marshall need to hold down the back of the rotation, because if any combination of Ryan Dempster, Jon Lieber and Jason Marquis are pitching back-to-back there could be unforeseen issues. Carlos Marmol (1.43, 96 K’s in 69.1 innings) is going to be an electrifying closer. Bob Howry and a healthy Kerry Wood could make the bullpen one of the best in the league.

Liar, Liar

Let me get this out there right off the bat: I was NEVER a fan of Roger Clemens. But, much like Brett Favre, I respected his accomplishments and always included him in a conversation about the greatest pitchers of all-time.

Notice the use of past tense in that paragraph.

Now, let me also make it perfectly clear that I think Clemens is a steroid user. I think his numbers are tainted the same way I think Barry Bonds should still be somewhere around 647 career home runs.

Clemens is as guilty as (new Sports Illustrated Swimsuit cover girl) Marisa Miller is hot.

I don’t necessarily hate him for that, however; I hate him because he’s wasting my time and yours.

Since the Mitchell Report was released on Dec. 13, Clemens has vehemently denied that he used steroids and performance enhancing drugs by:
‡issuing a formal statement
‡releasing a video statement on his web site
‡doing an interview on 60 minutes
‡holding his own press conference to play a recorded phone conversation between himself and his accuser, Brian McNamee
‡releasing a statistical analysis with scientific data to prove his career didn’t take an unnatural curve at the end, and
‡meeting with members of congress one-on-one and sitting before congress on Feb. 13.

Sorry, but when some of your best seasons occur between the ages of 40-45, I’d call that just a tad bit out of the ordinary. Players not hiked up on HGH and steroids don’t do that. It’s called aging, and that is natural.

By my count, that’s roughly 6 hours of my life that could have been spent doing better things—like cleaning my apartment or organizing my photo albums into alphabetical order.

Clemens cares so much about public opinion--despite claiming that he doesn’t give a “rat’s ass” about the Hall of Fame—that it makes me sick. Now, I think Clemens is also one of the dumbest people alive. It’s been proven time and time again that all the public wants is the truth and an apology and it will all go away.

Does anyone outside Colorado still hate Kobe Bryant for committing adultery—and probably raping that woman? No, because he apologized and cried his way out of it.

Is Jason Giambi still being booed in stadiums across the country? No, because he apologized. Although we still can’t be entirely sure what for.

Are people making as big a deal over Andy Pettite’s admitted use of HGH? No, because he came out right away and admitted to it and apologized for it.

To me, Pettite and Chuck Knoblauch’s admissions are all I need to know about Clemens’ reported use. By no means is McNamee a saint, and his credibility certainly came into question at the congressional hearings.

With that being said, the one thing he seems to have a firm grip on is whom he did and did not inject with illegal substances. Even Roger’s wife, Debbie, says McNamee is telling the truth about her use of HGH before a photo shoot that had her posing in a bikini.

So, McNamee is a cool 3-for-3. I seriously doubt the only one he lied about is Roger Clemens. If it wasn’t true, why put his name in with the rest in the first place?

When Clemens’ best support to date comes from Jose Canseco with regards to not being present at a BBQ where McNamee claims the two discussed steroid use, I can’t help but laugh. One thing we can be sure of is that Canseco will write and say anything to be put in the public eye, especially if there’s some benefit for him (monetarily or otherwise).

If Clemens and Canseco were, in fact, present at a social gathering should we really expect Canseco to remember years later? His body was filled with so many illegal things, who knows where his mind was at any point--especially when he could be enjoying a fine cigar and taking down some alcohol on top of that. Besides, Canseco never struck me as the brightest candle on the Menorah.

As I’ve stated many times in the past, this is all just the start to the fallout of a dark era of baseball—the Steroid Era. Yet, I find it fitting that the two players that benefited most and the two that catapulted themselves into debates regarding their all-time status—Bonds and Clemens—are the two in the most serious trouble.

For the last 20 years, children had posters of these two hanging on their walls. I feel sorry for them. Their idols are cheaters, liars and arrogant jerks. I won’t feel sorry for Bonds or Clemens, both of whom may wind up behind bars in the future. Perjury charges have already been brought against Bonds and may be against Clemens as well since either he or McNamee must have lied under oath.

Now that would make for a great photo on the cover of a magazine. The best power hitter and the best pitcher of their generation in a jail cell.

Lets conveniently place their posters on the wall to give the cell a more homey feeling.

NEXT WEEK I’ll begin my 2008 MLB Preview with a division-by-division rundown going from baseball’s worst division to its best!

2007 New England Patriots: 18-1 Failures

An epic upset and the greatest play in Super Bowl history, a Hall of Fame center gets traded, a Hall of Fame head coach resigns and a Hall of Fame pitcher used steroids.

What a week in sports.

While it might seem that all I do at ESPN is watch a game every night and make the highlights for that game; there’s actually other things I do. For instance, right now I begin each day in one of the studios prompting “Outside the Lines” with Bob Ley.

This leads me to reason #161 why I love my job: As I was driving to work Wednesday, I called my father for the first time in a few days. As I walked into the building, we were discussing the Eli Manning to David Tyree play in Super Bowl XLII and why I thought it was the greatest play in Super Bowl history. No longer than 90 seconds had passed after our conversation ended, when I walked onto the set and they were filming a segment for the show. There, on set, Bob Ley is sitting next to—and interviewing—none other than David Tyree.

What other job can someone casually talk about the Super Bowl during a phone conversation and then see a hero from the game minutes later? Awesome things.

Back to the game, I was shocked like most of the country that the Giants won. They were definitely the better team. That being said, I can’t even begin to imagine how Patriots fans must feel. For 5 months, their team was in a different galaxy than the rest of the NFL. Every story written inevitably discussed their place in history as the greatest team ever. All along, they knew it would come down to 1 game—it did, and they lost. The undefeated Miami Dolphins and 1985 Chicago Bears re-enter the picture as the greatest teams of all-time because they won the game that mattered most.

I imagine I’d know the empty feeling inside Patriots fans if a similar thing had happened to the Chicago Bulls during the 90’s. But, there’s the difference and another example of why Michael Jordan is the greatest athlete of all-time. Everyone knew the Bulls were the best team, everyone knew they were going to win the championship—and they did. They never failed to live up to the hype on the grandest stage.

Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and Randy Moss failed in Super Bowl XLII—and that’s what will be remembered about the 2007 New England Patriots.

‡ Does anyone else find it somewhat amusing and rather ridiculous that it took roughly 23 hours for the Miami Heat to trade Shaquille O’Neal yet took nearly 2 weeks for the Baltimore Orioles to trade Erik Bedard?

At first, I didn’t understand this trade for the Phoenix Suns. But after days to analyze, it’s a terrific move. Suns’ general manager Steve Kerr has the right mindset, one similar to White Sox GM Ken Williams—to win NOW. The window of brilliance for Steve Nash is closing, either the Suns go for it all now or they risk rebuilding without ever really trying to win it all.

Shawn Marion was bolting at season’s end and the “fifth gear” offense hadn’t gotten the team to the NBA Finals the last few seasons anyhow. Shaq can rest for a while, and as long as he is in decent shape when the playoffs come around, the trade will be seen as a good move.

Possible playoff opponents will feature elite big men such as Tim Duncan, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, Carlos Boozer and David West. The Suns have trouble with elite big men (see Al Jefferson’s splits vs. the Suns this season). Add it all up and the Suns added a unique dimension to their high-octane style. It’s a dimension that brings solid defense and the capability to settle into a half-court game, which will undoubtedly occur in the playoffs.

‡ Speaking of Gasol, I must hand it to John Paxson yet again for failing to make a splash via trade. Clearly he’s content sitting at 20-29, with no true stars. Then again, at 9-games under .500 the Bulls are currently in the playoffs in the JV (Eastern) Conference. If somebody—anybody—has any idea what Pax’s plan is for making the Bulls a championship contender once again please let me know. I am completely dumbfounded by his lack of aggressiveness and my patience is paper-thin.

‡ The Chicago Bears off season got started in tremendous fashion, here is an excerpt from Steve Rosenbloom’s latest blog on Chicagosports.com:

Brian Urlacher underwent neck surgery. This will do nothing to help the arthritis in his back. That's apparently hopeless. The Bears aren't saying anything. Maybe they're too afraid. Understandable, because this news goes along with Lance Briggs' expected exit in a month. Worse, Adam Archuleta is still here. Same goes for Fred Miller. Who knows what planet Cedric Benson is on? And the coach is fine with returning all three quarterbacks from one of the worse offensive seasons in captivity. Be the first kid on your block to write off next season.

‡ Finally, I’ve had to come to grips with the fact that the Chicago Blackhawks will miss the playoffs yet again. Injuries took their toll around the All-Star break, the youngsters finally slowed down and some veterans lack of commitment began to show. I echo Denis Savard’s plea to his players to “Commit to the Indian” and take great pride in the rich tradition the Indian-head sweater represents.

While their season will come to an end after 82 games—again—there is finally promise in the organization. Former greats Bobby Hull, Stan Mikita and Tony Esposito have returned to the Hawks family as ambassadors and the crop of youngsters Dale Tallon has complied show real promise. Now if he can only fix the gaping hole between the pipes that they call the “Bulin Wall.” If Nikolai Khabibulin is a wall, he’s made out of glass—not brick. Frozen rubber will shatter—and go through—glass when traveling at high speeds.

‡ The Cubs still haven’t won a World Series in 100 years, a streak of epic proportions. If they should happen to win one in October maybe I’ll blog about them. In the meantime, I won’t waste my time on the biggest losers in sports history.

Weekly Quick Hits-- Super Bowl edition

‡ Bill Belichick is a genius, you can hate him but you also must admit that. I firmly believe he had Tom Brady wear the boot so that it would capture the media spotlight and take the focus off of the Patriots quest of perfection. Brady handles the media better than any athlete since Michael Jordan and had no problem playing the game. Meanwhile, the rest of the team avoided constant hounding about going 19-0. To quote the scientists in the Guinness Beer commercial, “Brilliant!”

Official Super Bowl prediction: Patriots win 35-20, Wes Welker wins MVP.

With that being said, Matt Walsh, a former Patriots video assistant has suggested to ESPN that he has information that could have exposed the Patriots prior to the Jets' allegations which ended up with the record fines. He says this information could be “embarrassing for the NFL and the Patriots.”

If Walsh chooses to speak, get ready for a wild ride akin to the steroids issue in baseball. Remember the Ty Law pick-6 in Super Bowl XXXVI? Let’s just say you’d be seeing plenty of replays of that for a while.

‡ Finally, an NL team decides they want to join the elite contenders club with the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Tigers, Angels and Seattle Mariners (after the Erik Bedard trade becomes official. Congratulations to Omar Minaya and the New York Mets for becoming the only team in the inferior league with a slight chance of winning the World Series in 2008.

On a personal note, I can’t begin to tell you how thrilled I am that the White Sox won’t have to see Johan Santana anymore. He consistently goes 5-1 or 4-1 with a no decision against the Sox each season. By my count, this should equal at least 3 more wins since I don’t see the Sox doing worse than .500 in the games he’d normally start against them. Somewhere, Paul Konerko is throwing a party for the Twins front office.

‡ Memphis is the only undefeated team left in the country and will hold the No. 1 spot in the polls until they lose in the NCAA Tournament. With the exception of beating Georgetown at home, which win is supposed to impress me? Victories over unranked USC, Arizona, Oklahoma or Gonzaga? Not quite making me jump out of my seat. At the end of the season, the win over UCONN will look nice, but the Huskies were still figuring themselves out when they played on a neutral site back in mid-November. My bad, wins over conference opponents such as East Carolina, Marshall, Tulsa and Houston really do get my heart racing.

Sure, Memphis is talented. At least three of their players will be on an NBA roster next season. The problem is three members of the starting five for their conference opposition will be sitting at a desk or working in the fast food industry next season.

While other elite teams like Kansas, North Carolina and UCLA face tough games nearly every night within their conference; Memphis cakewalks to a 1-seed. But, are they really battle tested? After blowing everyone out, who exactly is going to have the mental strength and intestinal fortitude to hit a clutch shot in the tournament? I know I’ll have them bowing out before the Final Four in my pool.

‡ I got a treat at work the other night when I was assigned the Golden State Warriors v. New Orleans Hornets highlights. These teams are fun to watch. Chris Paul is the best true point guard in the NBA while the Warriors--led by one of my favorite players, Baron Davis—score points like they’re trying to see if the scoreboard really goes that high. Davis can get into the lane at will and hit shots from anywhere on the floor, literally. He went 5-for-7 from behind the arc, including one fading away in the corner and another right in front of Byron Scott—who was standing a few feet behind the time line.

While the Hornets’ nine-game winning streak was snapped, I do think they are a legit contender as any team would be with Paul. David West is a legit scoring big man, while Tyson Chandler rebounds and blocks shot like Ben Wallace used to in Detroit. Meanwhile, Peja Stojakovic (remember him?) and Morris Peterson stretch defenses with their lethal shooting. Bobby Jackson and Jannero Pargo provide a spark off the bench.

Meanwhile, Don Nelson must be having a mid-life crisis. How does he expect Chris Webber to help the run-and-gun, can’t shoot enough 3-pointers Warriors? Forget the fact Webber is one of the most non-clutch players ever—remember when Peja and Mike Bibby were always called upon to take the last shot in Sacramento instead of their perennial “All-Star?”

Last seen with the Pistons, Webber could barely run and just camped out around the free throw line. Maybe he can be a mentor for rookie Brandan Wright, but that would require he teach boxing out and I don’t recall ever seeing Webber do that, either.

‡ Finally, I also got to make the highlights for the NHL Skills Competition this past week. I was thrilled seeing as how I have watched this event every year since I was 6 that there wasn’t a lockout. This year was pretty boring, I must admit.

The new speed-skating competition was a miserable failure as players that crossed the line first somehow had worse times than their opponent. The breakaway challenge was fun and could gain the same popularity as the dunk contest. However, after trying difficult moves, the players still need to put the puck past an All-Star goaltender and they had trouble doing that. Thus, it was void of real electricity. At least on bad dunks, the ball goes through the net most of the time.

The Young Stars game was a 3-on-3 goal-scoring frenzy. The two sides combined for 13 goals in 12 minutes… with a running clock! There was some talk that commissioner Gary Bettman is thinking about going to a 3-on-3 overtime if a shootout ends in a tie. While I am all for change and increased goal scoring, this is a bit excessive. Imagine if Bud Selig decided that if a game goes into the 15th inning each team could only use one outfielder.

**** I promise I’ll try to update more frequently. Please leave feedback and story ideas in the comments section. If this weekly update is enjoyed, I will continue to do them.***